Probability Maps
Each of the three maps shown here is the result of running a simple
GIS model on 100 different combinations of DEM realizations and land cover
realizations. The resulting 100 realizations were then "added" together
to produce one map. For example, If a cell was flooded in 30 realizations
of the sea level rise model, its value in the probablity map would be 30.
Sea Level Rise
In contrast to the results of the model on the original data, areas
at risk are distributed across the lower portion of the quadrangle. In
fact, almost every urban location below 50 meters elevation on the original
DEM is judged to be at risk. Therefore, we may conclude that the quality
of the input DEM appears to be too poor to draw any conclusions from the
sea level rise application.
Landslide Risk
In contrast to the sea level rise probability map, areas at risk are
more concentrated here. The north face of the Mesa shows up in virtually
all of the model realizations, and most other areas have much lower probabilities,
Here, incorporating uncertainty information into the model appears to confirm
that the Mesa is a high risk area, and also that a linear region to the
northwest of the Mesa is worth investigation.
Banana Suitablity
The probablity map resembles the results from the model with a much
greater spatial scatter. However, no cell was identified as suitable by
more than 50 of the model realizations. Two different conclusions could
be drawn from the model results. One is that, like the sea level rise example,
the data is simply too poor to attempt to use with this suitability model.
A second is that, since probablities are uniformly low across the quadrangle,
perhaps suitable areas for banana growing do not exist in the Goleta Valley.