Experiments In Modeling Global Trade

Waldo Tobler

Professor Emeritus
Geography Department
University of California
Santa Barbara, CA 93106-4060

 

Email: tobler@geog.ucsb.edu


 

An experimental spherical quadratic transportation model is applied to world exports and imports. The data consists of a table of 1987 trade (in millions of dollars) between seventy countries distributed thoughout the world. One version of the model uses the 4900 spherical distances between the country centroids. The model then generates supply and demand Lagrangians and attractivity and turnover potentials from the table margins. A variant of this model includes the summed exports and imports as weights. Both of these model estimates can be compared to the actual trade table. An alternate form of the model solves the spherical Poisson equation to get the attractivity potential. Gradient and streakline fields are computed from this net movement potential, and are shown in the form of maps.