Statement of Interest

Thomas Meredith,
Department of Geography,
McGill University
Montreal,
Canada, H3A 2K6

Contents

1: Research Interests
2: Abstract
3: Brief Biography.

1. Research Interests

My academic interest is in the conservation and management of ecological resources with a particular focus on environmental impact assessment and community response to environmental change. Working with Parks Canada, I became aware of the need for new approaches to ecological conservation management. Through my PhD in plant population ecology and subsequent work in applied conservation, my research has been based on recognition of a need for solid science as well as solid linkages with the community of resource users. This arises from the belief that effective environmental protection will come not solely from either draconian legislation or land sequestration, but rather from an aggregation of local environmental systems that involve human communities in sustainable relationships with their biophysical resource base. I have worked with native communities in Quebec (the Naskapi and Inuit), as well as with rural resource communities in Quebec (La Mauricie), British Columbia, Mexico and Africa.

My link with land use modelling is that I am interested in the "cybernetics" of change within community-environmental systems and am attempting to determine how geographic information and spatial analysis procedure can best support community decision-making processes. This is work-in-progress. To me the particularly interesting element of modelling land cover change is a paradox discussed by the Canadian Global Change Program panel on "Critical Environmental Zone." That is: if models of land use change are both accurate and relevant, they will modify human behaviour so that the predictions based on the model are wrong. In other words, if models of change are simply based on historic probabilities of change, they fail to recognize the capacity of "the system" to learn and modify those probabilities. Models can be seen as having two purposes, one is simply to describe from the outside what is going on (and so the model is not really a part of the system) and the second is to provide information about futures so that undesirable futures can be avoided (and so, in this case the model IS a part of the adaptation process it is describing because it will modify actions). In conservation work, the second category of model is of most interest.

The question I would pose is how do models incorporate learning from the models?

In a Mexican project we assumed continued rates of land cover conversion and demonstrated what the landscape might look like in 10 and 20 years given trends of deforestation and urbanization. The intention was to modify land use decisions that will affect land cover change by demonstrating a model that, in effect, would prevent what it predicted. This exercise was based on an assumption that the community assigned a value the forest and would make appropriate decisions if the temporal scale of land cover change was made visible. But in this case, no attempt was made to quantify factors that would influence the probability that evidence of change in the environment would lead to change in human behaviour.


By contrast, in a project in Tanzania, a graduate student and I have been trying relate very specific use values for environmental resources associated with land cover types. For example, what is a given species of tree used for, how important is that use and what substitutes are there for it? That quantification of value would be a weighting that would influence the probability of compensatory action being taken by human actors in the landscape once predictions of land cover change were made known to them. The following is an abstract for a paper we are preparing on this work.

2. Abstract

Using value estimates for woody species and information about land cover change to identify conservation priorities in Northern Tanzania. (Draft).

Wynet Smith, T.C. Meredith, and T. Johns


Identifying conservation priorities in communities dependent on ecological resources requires consideration of local use patterns, the extractive impacts of local uses, and of the individual species availability and distribution. Merging of these information sets can help to identify locally valued species and species under pressure. Use-value is defined as a function of number of uses and of availability of substitutes. Conservation priorities can be expected to be a function of use-value, abundance, and degree of endangerment. Endangerment is a function of the rate at which the land cover class for a given species is being lost. Data on use patterns of the Batemi in north-central Tanzania are combined with abundance and distribution data and used to explore methodologies for identifying possible conservation priorities.

3. Biography

Dr. Meredith completed a Bachelor of Environmental Studies (geography) at the University of Waterloo in 1974. After a year of travel in Africa he was awarded a Parks Canada scholarship for an interdisciplinary M.Sc. (botany, geography, zoology) and a Diploma in Conservation at University College London. He proceeded directly from that to Ph.D. research in plant population ecology at the University of Cambridge. In 1979 he joined the Department of Geography at McGill University and, from 1981 to 1993, was the director of the university's Environmental Studies Program. Until 1994 he was convenor of a Canadian Global Change Program panel on Critical Environmental Zones and is still a member of the International Geographic Union's Commission on Critical Zones. The academic year 1987-88 was spent in Senegal and Nairobi (UNEP and University of Nairobi) and 1994-1995 was spent as a visiting researcher at University of California (Santa Barbara) and at the Universidad Nacional Autonoma de Mexico.
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