Steve Burstein is project manager for the Regional Plan project
being conducted by the Middle Rio Grande Council of Governments
(MRGCOG). He holds a Master of Urban and Regional Planning degree
from the University of Colorado at Denver and a B.A. from the
University of Michigan. He is a member of the American Institute
of Certified Planners.
The purpose of the Regional Plan is to create a long range vision
and strategy for managing growth and development within the Middle
Rio Grande region. The vision and growth management strategy
is intended to meet the goal of attaining sustainable, long range
economic vitality in the region. The achievement of the goal
will require the development of a long range (horizon year 2050)
land use-based framework which encompasses the linkages between
regional land use and transportation systems, and other interrelated
regional functional planning areas (e.g., water, air quality,
linked regional open space, utilities, economic development and
housing).
The Regional Plan project is scheduled to require approximately
four years. The project consists of eight overlapping tracks
of activities: the start-up phase "tool box," public
involvement, advisory committees, supporting studies, developing
scenarios, testing of scenarios, selection of preferred alternative,
policies and implementation plan. We are one year into the project.
This planning activity will result in a region-wide development
plan to be adopted by the MRGCOG Board of Directors for the use
of governmental agencies, non-profit agencies and businesses committed
to involvement in regional issues, and private citizens. Local
governments will be able to use the plan as a regional systems
"template" guiding local comprehensive plan. The plan
will guide MRGCOG planning activities in such areas as growth
management, transportation planning, and regional water planning.
The long range regional transportation plan developed by MRGCOG
for the Metropolitan Planning Organization (MPO designated by
the U.S. DOT), to be updated through a Regional Major Investment
Study, will be consistent with the preferred land use scenario.
Other regions have engaged in similar regional planning efforts
from which we have learned important lessons and in some cases
borrowed methodology. Those regions include the Puget Sound Regional
Council, Portland Metro, Denver Regional Council of Governments,
San Diego Association of Governments, and Palm Beach County.
The study area for the regional plan consists of the four County
region in State Planning and Development District 3, plus a 360
square mile portion of southern Santa Fe County encompassing Edgewood.
The total study area contains approximately 9,600 square miles.
The region includes the mainly contiguous metropolitan area in
and around the principal city of Albuquerque, several communities
along the Rio Grande to the north and south of the Albuquerque
metropolitan area, and a number of rural farming and mountainous
communities located more than 40 miles from the metropolitan area.
Additionally, Reservation lands of ten independent Indian Pueblos,
a portion of the Canoncito Navajo Reservation, a portion of the
Jicarilla Apache Tribe Reservation and a portion of the Navajo
Nation "Checkerboard" area are located within the region.
MRGCOG is developing a land use analysis model (LAM) to assist
in developing alternative land use scenarios. It is anticipated
that a long list of 8-12 scenarios will first be developed, followed
by a short list of 4 scenarios, and finally a preferred alternative
incorporating various refinements. The consultant firm of Planning
Technologies, Inc. in Albuquerque, headed by T. Michael Corlett,
has been working on the LAM since November of 1996. The computer
application is being designed to operate on ArcView. Analyses
to be performed by LAM include: (a) an ability to generate socioeconomic
and land use forecasts for the regional plan development scenarios;
(b) sketch planning tools to allow planners to quickly design
land use schemes and transportation or other public works systems
responsive to those scenarios, (c) ability to "launch"
other models such as the EMME/2 trip assignment model, Mobile-5
air quality model, a wastewater flow model, and possibly the USGS
water flow model.
LAM will consist of the following modules: Scenario Development
Module to draw and edit land uses interactively on screen, Economic
Structure Module allowing depiction of relationships between forecast
growth (in terms of SIC codes) and the demand for lands of different
use, Disaggregation Heuristics Module to forecast development
patterns through the GIS depiction of various types of rules or
heuristics, Disaggregation Module to perform allocation, or disaggregation,
of regional control totals of forecast socioeconomic variables
to and use polygons to absorb development, and Editing Module
to alter and revise land use maps.
The MRGCOG is assembling an inventory of existing land uses throughout
the Regional Plan Study Area. An 18 category schema of land uses
was developed for application to polygons generally larger than
1 acre. We are using a variety of sources and techniques to develop
this coverage that is so essential to the LAM.
The MRGCOG and the USGS National Mapping Division are coordinating
activities in their respective projects of the Regional Plan and
the Middle Rio Grande Basin Project. David Hester of the USGS
National Mapping Division attended most of a series of charette
meeting to develop LAM. We are developing a Memo of Understanding
to guide various data sharing and other joint planning tasks.
My interests in the Land Use Model Workshop are as follows: to learn more about a variety of approaches to modeling future land use in conjunction with other functional areas which may be applied to the model development on which we are working, to contribute to the "state of the art" of land use modeling, to work on a better joint vocabulary among geographers, urban planners, modelers, and other related disciplines on this topic, and to advance productive working relationships between regional and local planning agencies and the USGS.