| Table 9: Multinomial Logit Model Results for Conversion of Developed Land to Commercial Use: 1985-95 | ||||||||
| Estimated Coefficients by County | ||||||||
| Independent Variable | Alameda | Contra Costa | Marin | Napa | San Mateo | Santa Clara | Solano | Sonoma |
| Site initially in Commercial Use | -12.023 | -11.8643 | 21.7882 | -11.1309 | -13.0147 | -13.9121 | -12.5782 | -12.6942 |
| Site Initially in Industrial Use | 0.1472 | 0.9548 | 6.27 | 5.2253 | -0.37 | 1.7774 | -5.4482 | 1.3797 |
| Site Initially in Public Use | -8.1585 | -7.4652 | 7.5368 | 0.3294 | 0.6988 | -0.3297 | 0.9748 | -11.0378 |
| Site Initially in Transportation/Utiltities Use | -0.176 | -0.1892 | 22.2551 | 9.3268 | -0.2774 | 0.8196 | -0.7294 | 0.4796 |
| 1980-85 %Employment change | -0.1025 | -1.7125 | 47.0229 | 12.1506 | -2.6391 | 0.0686 | -6.1461 | 2.613 |
| 1980-85 %Household change | 15.464 | 2.3777 | -139.9 | 117.9 | 11.027 | 1.8146 | 6.3358 | 6.9521 |
| 1980 Households | -0.00005 | -0.0002 | 0.00448 | -0.00008 | 0.000042 | 1.3E-05 | 0.000328 | -0.00008 |
| 1980 Employment | 0.000037 | 0.0003 | -0.000291 | 0.0019 | -0.00002 | -0.00002 | -0.0002 | -0.00009 |
| Jobs/Household Ratio-1980 | -0.7813 | -5.7755 | 35.9462 | -56.8296 | -0.3871 | 0.00542 | 0.9912 | 16.7804 |
| Distance to San Francisco (in 200 meter increments) | -0.0239 | -0.00159 | -0.0116 | -0.1074 | -0.0173 | -0.00101 | 0.0666 | -0.0304 |
| Distance to San Jose (in 200 meter increments) | -0.00808 | -0.00002 | 0.0146 | 0.1621 | -0.01014 | -0.00428 | 0.0552 | -0.0328 |
| Distance to Frwy Interchange (in 200 meter increments) | -0.135 | 0.0168 | -0.0315 | -0.044 | -0.0242 | -0.0104 | -0.1137 | -0.0211 |
| Distance to nearest BART station (in 200 meter increments) | -0.022 | 0.00249 | ||||||
| Slope1: 1-2% site slope | -0.146 | -0.0173 | 0.0623 | 0.00591 | 1.0685 | -0.2184 | -0.7757 | 0.4289 |
| Slope2: 3-5% site slope | -1.0218 | -1.6383 | 0.6963 | -1.1353 | 0.5837 | -0.7304 | -9.0198 | -0.5785 |
| Slope3: 6-10% site slope | -8.7233 | -1.9359 | -0.3211 | -8.2952 | -0.3561 | -2.3064 | -8.0434 | -0.4093 |
| Slope4: 11-15% site slope | 0.0906 | -2.1665 | 5.4283 | -7.5454 | -0.2314 | -9.3451 | -6.3974 | 0.8156 |
| Slope5: > 15% site slope | -5.8892 | -2.1062 | -5.4178 | -7.4449 | -7.3132 | -1.3786 | -5.8107 | 1.8159 |
| Within Sphere-of-Influence | -9.2637 | -14.2278 | -8.9394 | -16.3629 | 0.4973 | -8.0440 | 2.1222 | |
| Distance to S-O-I (in 200 meter increments) | 0.0386 | -0.0309 | 0.0508 | -0.0865 | -0.1129 | 0.00756 | -0.0303 | -0.0219 |
| % of Adjacent Grid Cells in Residential Use | -4.2626 | 0.9783 | -13.2675 | -2.2477 | -0.6515 | -2.0112 | -4.7769 | 1.0514 |
| % of Adjacent Grid Cells in Commercial Use | -1.9163 | 0.7010 | -8.1623 | -1.8561 | 1.3448 | -0.6974 | -1.6503 | -1.4817 |
| % of Adjacent Grid Cells in Industrial Use | -0.6004 | 0.8066 | -20.8315 | -53.9395 | -3.167 | -1.6061 | -56.6893 | -5.7929 |
| % of Adjacent Grid Cells in Public Use | -6.0667 | -2.5248 | -60.2284 | -5.01 | -4.5547 | -3.0796 | -13.5179 | 2.396 |
| % of Adjacent Grid Cells in Transportation Uses | -1.6519 | 2.6840 | -17.2094 | 20.6262 | 1.1263 | -1.8732 | 0.7534 | 1.9874 |
| Vacant Land Hectares within 200 meters | 2.3704 | 1.8271 | -6.4179 | -0.3487 | 3.0104 | 0.0477 | 2.1352 | 2.8365 |
| Distance to nearest commercial use (in 200 meter increments) | -0.1212 | -0.1706 | 0.6523 | -0.2385 | -0.1197 | -0.0348 | -0.153 | -0.3779 |
| Distance to nearest industrial use (in 200 meter increments) | -0.0223 | 0.0097 | -0.1166 | -0.0222 | -0.0345 | 0.00287 | -0.0191 | 0.00885 |
| Distance to nearest public use (in 200 meter increments) | 0.00314 | 0.0482 | 0.0376 | 0.1428 | 0.0988 | -0.0525 | -0.1301 | 0.00838 |
| Intercept | 6.5932 | -1.6914 | -94.7354 | -91.8064 | 4.797 | -1.4488 | 23.8461 | 2.4709 |
| Number of Hectare Land Use Changes: 1985-95 | 138 | 116 | 1 | 38 | 50 | 500 | 35 | 127 |
| Key: Bolded coefficient estimates are significant at the .05 level; no significance level could be estimated for shaded coefficients | ||||||||